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DXY – Dollar Index

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Description

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is an index or a way to measure the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.The index is designed, maintained, and published by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.), with the name "U.S. Dollar Index”.

Technical Assessments

After analysing the structure of DXY from 1985 (best available data), it seems that the final correction is progress. The final correction cycle started in Jan' 2017 and should terminate in the next few years if not months. The price levels at 89.6 should act as a support and could give a bounce back. However I don't see that as a completion of the overall correction cycle. I expect market to breaks this support zone and move lower, at least  Feb'2018 lows (88.17) to begin with. So where are we in the structure?

  1. Very Long Term = Bearish
  2. Long Term = Bearsih
  3. Immediate or short term = bounce back from support levels ( bullish)
While not many trade DXY but it certainly provides guidance on the possible move of other currencies which are traded frequently in the market. For e.g. EUR, INR, CHF, etc.   We will continue to monitor this and look for opportunities to short US Dollar in the near future.

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