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Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin- Now what?

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Context

Last update on Bitcoin 31 Dec '20 https://mymarketstructure.com/currency/bitcoin/ When Bitcoin was trading around $28K. At that time, we were looking at two options : 1) Bitcoin to finish it rally at around 36K or 2) extend beyond $40K. We had a bias that it will be the first one and as such, we exited our positions around $35K. What happened after that is now know to all. It continued it's rally  way above $60K. We were continuously monitoring the structure of this market and made updates on Twitter. Have a look here:  

  Just on 17th of May 2021, we noticed that prices have peaked and we were expecting it start a correction and anticipated levels around $28K as new entry point.  See what happens on May 19th.      

Short term structure review

So what's next and how to trade Bitcoin?   The short term structure states that the correction that started is not over yet. Having said that, we see there could be 2 possibilities now and are shown the image on the top of page in two colors (yellow dotted line and blue arrows)

  1. Price makes a sharp rebound from the current levels (~$35K) and makes a new high and then fall below May 19th low around $30K. This should be sharp rise and then fall
  2. Prices makes a new low and goes below May 19th low and then runs sideways for quite some time before starting a new short term bullish movement. This will be classified as sideways movement
Now, let's also review why there are more than one possiblity here. While evaluating the previous structure, there is confusion around termination of correction structure.  Either it was in Dec 2018 or in March 2020. Until we have a clarity around that, it will be difficult to make a strong projection. Next Steps:
  1. Buy any dip below to $30K around $28K and go long.
  2. Critical support - should not break $19,890(coinbase price). Any break below, will open different structure and will have to be re-assessed. But that could potentially mean Bitcoin will make another low beyond March 2020 price.
Will keep you posted. Until then, follow us on Twitter @MMStructure for timely and quick updates.    

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